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Gold Silver - Precious Metals Discussion on Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and mining.

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  #211  
Old 06-12-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

AGnuggets..I dont think you read what i posted very well

:D

Quote:
Eagles: Grade rarity of any modern coinage (especially bullion) is a marketing scam, no matter how you stack it. Just consider this....... For every MS-XX that comes through PCGS or NGC, there are millions more out there just sitting in mint boxes, rolls, or flips that are POTENTIAL MS-XX grades just waiting to happen. The grade doesn't change the fact that all you have is a bullion coin, in the plastic or out.

I said that i try to buy Graded buliion(1 ounce gold) coins as close to spot/or even at spot, but i am willing to pay up to 3-5% More. As you say above, there are millions more waiting to be graded, but to make that happen, prices will need to rise "Above the bullion value" of those coins.Which they clearly show that they have done.

I dont think i need to tell you that if i own those coins "Now" and the prices of those coins rise above the bullion value in the future, i will be better off then had i just bought the bullion. I am buying bullion at or close to bullion prices, Yet my bullion has a better chance to bring better prices then non graded bullion. And the fact remains, that i still own nice graded bullion coins, that i paid bullion prices for.

You will never see me out there bidding $1500+ for 1 ounce of gold just because it has a MS70 on it

Peace
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  #212  
Old 06-12-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Man i said "Bullion" alot in that post above

Anyways.. I got Bullion Even if my bullion is in sweet ass little plastic holders that have shiny NGC things on them

I do still like my silver bullion "Naked" though.

Peace
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Old 06-12-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Just a quick example of Agnuggets "Graded Bullion scam" at work.


:D


http://cgi.ebay.com/2006-W-PCGS-MS69...QQcmdZViewItem


hmm $735 + $7 shipping and still 17 hours left.

Last edited by Silver Monkey; 06-12-2007 at 03:37 AM.. Reason: mis wording
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  #214  
Old 06-12-2007
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

I just saw this article about liquidity and thought it fit in with what I am trying to get across. It clearly states my view regarding having cash in hand rather than paper assets somewhere down the chain. Like food in possession, cash in possession may be all important in a cash liquidity scenario. As I said before, the average citizen holds about $50 in cash. Maybe.

======================

I cannot shake this nagging feeling that the most important idea for folks to consider before the coming dislocation hits, whenever it hits, is that it will be necessary to have some liquidity, even if that liquidity is held in a crummy currency like the dollar.

I am more convinced than ever that the amount of leverage being held at the institutional, hedge-fund, individual and corporate levels is, while not directly ascertainable, extremely high.

In fact, I think the overall financial risks are far higher than I ever imagined they could be.

Consequently, I no longer believe it's possible to determine in advance just what asset classes might be safe in a financial dislocation, as so many of them have become so intertwined, while at the same time we can't know how leveraged any of the underlying positions may be.

Thus, when liquidation occurs one of these days, absurd developments may unfold that you might like to take advantage of. But one must have some flexibility -- liquidity -- to do that.
Bill Fleckenstein, of Fleckenstein Capital

Best wishes,

Agnut

P.S. I’m also going to post this at the bartering and horse trading thread as a heads up to have cash on hand for deals if nobody else has cash at that time. Lately I’m getting the ominous feeling that there is a fragile illusion that all is well while I am seeing shoppers buying almost exclusively with charge cards.

There is even an ad currently running on the boob tube that shows shoppers merrily buying by charge cards and one shopper pays with a check and the music stops and everything appears frozen up at the cash register. Even the flowers wilt ! It is a not so subtle message that paying other than by credit card is a social faux pas. What’s next, others laughing when someone wants to pay with cash ? Do you feel like you are being herded into a cashless society ? I do and I don’t like it one bit. Something wrong with everyone dependent on electronic banking for all financial transactions. The operative word is “dependent”.
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Old 06-12-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver Monkey View Post
Just a quick example of Agnuggets "Graded Bullion scam" at work.


:D


http://cgi.ebay.com/2006-W-PCGS-MS69...QQcmdZViewItem


hmm $735 + $7 shipping and still 17 hours left.

Although that coin does not have a proof finish, it is not strictly a bullion coin, just because the mintage was so small. It has the W mint mark, but the burnished (not proof) finish. Thus, the entire population of the strike is much smaller than the normal bullion coin.

It's like this:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...8777&rd=1&rd=1
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"We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power."

- Alan Greenspan (Chairman of the Federal Reserve US Central Bank), appearing before the Senate Banking Committee on February 15, 2005, in response to Democratic Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island on the topic of funding Social Security.
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  #216  
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver Monkey View Post
Just a quick example of Agnuggets "Graded Bullion scam" at work.


:D


http://cgi.ebay.com/2006-W-PCGS-MS69...QQcmdZViewItem


hmm $735 + $7 shipping and still 17 hours left.
Far from it. That "West Point" mint-marked piece is not what most of us would consider "bullion". It's a specialty, anniversary item, not your run-of-the-mill bullion piece......(ooops, I said it again). You're comparing apples to oranges to make your apples appear more than they are.

Hannes Tulving is notorious for "batch grading" bullion, and for a long time was offering "graded and slabbed" MS-69 Gold Eagles at the same price as "raw" Gold Eagles. He was effictively giving away the grading fees on those particular coins just to get rid of the mountains of stuff that did not come back as the coveted MS70. Now look at what the Buffalos are selling for, even in PCGS MS70 grades.........much less than has been customary for those lofty grades in the past.

Nothing wrong with buying slabbed bullion at "bullion prices" if you happen to like the holders. What I was talking about is the so-called "rarity" of such crap promoted for marketing purposes. Bullion is Bullion, and the plastic slab does not make it more than it was "raw". Same applied to numismatics. Too many get caught up on buying the plastic instead of the coin inside.
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  #217  
Old 06-14-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Quote:
Far from it. That "West Point" mint-marked piece is not what most of us would consider "bullion". It's a specialty, anniversary item, not your run-of-the-mill bullion piece......(ooops, I said it again). You're comparing apples to oranges to make your apples appear more than they are.
Yes that was a bad example, sorry. I have seen many non "W" ms69's go for $50+ more then spot though, and i have seen some "W"s go for close to spot. That was the point i was trying to make i guess.

I just picked up a 2007 ms69 early relese from Apmex for $10 over thier bullion coin price. ($672 for raw coin $682 for slabbed)

I guess i dont mind paying a little more for slabbed.

(Im pretty new to buying gold so Apmex may not be the best place) I would love to find a better place if it's out there?


If gold goes to where we all think it may, we will all be happy


Peace.
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  #218  
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Turner son,

Just read your post and you are right.

That coin you said has a mintage around 200k?

Here is mintage numbers for Gold eagles in the early to late 1990's (1 ounce $50 eagles)

1988
465,500

1989
415,790

1990
373,210

1991
243,100


1992
326,000

1993
480,192


1994
243,500

1995
226,000

1996
189,148


That silver eagle with a mintage of 200k is selling for $120+

All "Proof" coins of dates above have a mintage of well less then 85K





Anyways, i dont want to change the course of this thread any more then i have already.

This thread is about horse trading not numismatic bullion ect..ect..

I look forward to many more posts from Agnut and everyone else here.


Peace
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  #219  
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

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Originally Posted by TheFinalWord View Post
I scour the thrift stores in my area for silver and gold but don't find a lot. Virtually no sterling silver (only plated) and the gold jewelry tends to be priced higher than spot. I was lucky a few weeks ago, however, when the thrift store chain had a 50% off all merchandise day. I visited 3 in the area and purchased almost all of the 10K and 14K jewelry they had. Picked up the equivalent of about 1oz of .999 (after the calculations) for about $250.

I've tried yard sales but haven't had any luck when it comes to silver or gold.
Hi TheFinalWord and welcome here at GIM. You are right; it isn’t easy to find precious metal bargains. I have been looking for years and have only picked up a few pieces. When I concentrated on buying on Ebay I had a good deal of success there. I was buying over several years as gold and silver rose in spot price. My faith that gold and especially silver were too cheap proved to be true. In the beginning I could buy sterling silver for as little as about $3 per ounce. Now it is about $10 to $11 per troy ounce. So you see, sterling silver buying over the long term has been a good sideline for me. It was that faith in future silver price rises that allowed me to buy in anticipation of silver’s price rises. Maybe I am a futurist; I am always looking to the future and thinking what a deal will become in a year, two years and so on. Besides, I love sterling silver and the artistry of the antique pieces. Not bad having a “hobby” that pays handsomely, eh ?

As I have written about the virtues of collecting sterling silver, one that is often overlooked is that in a PM confiscation scenario, sterling silver and gold jewelry are much less likely to be called in for confiscation. The government didn’t in the 1930s, only gold and silver bullion. Actually, the focus was on gold circulating coins. It is hard for me to imagine the government calling for confiscation of sterling silverware and jewelry. That would get the women riled up and as they say, “If momma ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy”. Nothing like starting a revolution by pushing the women of our country too far.

And if you think that taking away the gold and silver jewelry from the ladies of our country will be easy, you are dead wrong. If confiscation were called for, the women would revolt. And their husbands would hear plenty about it and then… What do you think would happen ? I look at the ladies as the central focus, the heart of our country. To get them riled up and subsequently their men who would go into protective mode would throw all the populace against the politicians. No, I think it will play out with continuing inflation that will drain discretionary income until some people will even have to sell their precious metals to continue to live as they have before. This discretionary income is only a small percent of total income and as inflation continues to do its damage and wages don’t keep up with inflation, discretionary income will disappear on the way to becoming a net negative. I don’t know that there is a term for this but having less income than living expenses is a miserable existence. And we are heading that way. You only have to think about what it will be like in a year or two if this trend continues. Very ugly and that is why I recently cautioned readers to be more cautious than ever in deal making. Buy only things you need or are sure that they are a screaming bargain and you know that you can sell them for a healthy profit.

My recommendation is to learn ways to save money and make money as this bartering and horse trading thread describes and as you accumulate excess dollars, convert those dollars into real wealth. Believe me, this way is a lot more effective use of your time than specifically looking for silver and gold bargains. And as you are going about your dealings, a few PM bargains will show up.

Now that I think of it, doesn’t it make sense as well as is revealing that it is difficult to find any screaming silver and gold bargains ? Sure, it does happen but in my experience it has been rare as a percentage. The revealing part is that almost everybody knows what silver and gold are worth at that time. Almost everybody knows ! That’s why it is so hard to find these hot PM deals.

It may seem like a stretch here but from this I can’t help but feel that right now people may be aware of precious metals back in the recesses of their minds but are dealing and thinking in terms of paper instruments such as dollars, stocks and bonds. Watch out for the day they lose confidence in these paper instruments. The dollar currently is about 83 as related to a basket of other fiat currencies. It has been written many times that every time the dollar falls to 80, it rebounds. This 80 is what is regarded as the line in the sand. There are two ways it can go; first it could fall greatly. Second, it could float above that 80 number for what seems like forever. Central banks are all dealing in fiat currencies and they can adjust their countries currencies to keep the dollar above this line in the sand. Why would they want to do this ? Because the dollar is the reserve currency for the world and to allow the dollar to collapse would cause all kinds of dislocations to the status quo. Lately however, some countries’ central banks have repudiated the dollar and will only deal in other fiat currencies like the euro or the yen. If this were to expand, the dollar is in jeopardy of losing its reserve currency status. And we would be like any other banana republic; unstable currency that may well hyperinflate into worthlessness.

It may be wise to look at ALL profitable deals as precious metal bargains. Why, you may ask ? Have I lost my mind ? Not yet I am proud to say. Because your ultimate goal should be to invest the gain from that deal into precious metals. So it is only a small mental leap to begin to view it this way. Also, having excess cash around allows you to buy precious metals on the dips if you so choose. No harm in having a stash of cash to flash down to the local coin dealer and clean his clock at the right time.

Best wishes and as usual, JMHO,

agnut
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  #220  
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Silver Monkey, your posts and others about gold Eagles and coins is appreciated and not off topic at all. The way I understand you are buying them slabbed at nearly the same price as raw gold Eagle coins opens possibilities for resale at a considerable premium. This sounds like a great way to increase your stash and at the same time you have no risk at the downside. Bravo !

Another example of the many ways we can barter and horse trade.

Just don’t fall in love with these MS69 slabbed coins. If I were you I would be buying and selling them on Ebay for as much spread as you can get. I was once a rare coin collector and used to subscribe to the population reports of PCGS and NGC coin slabbing companies. Sometimes I could get a coin that only had a population of three and none finer. The rarest ones were called the key coins to the set. And as you can imagine, they were hard to find as well as expensive.

Mint state coins are produced in large quantities but proof coins are very limited. But collecting here is not so simple. I am talking about old coins, maybe about 100 years or more. Old mint state coins were circulated and there are few in the highest grade while proof coins, although very few were made, were carefully put away by collectors. Also, there are a lot more mint state coin collectors than there are proof coin collectors. Each coin type has its own characteristics as much as the difference between collecting baseball cards and football cards. They are both card collections but the old baseball card collectors have a much larger following.

What I am trying to say is even that an old coin may be extremely rare and there are only three in the highest grade, it may not be worth one tenth of a type coin that is extremely popular. An 1855 three cent silver coin in the same grade as a Morgan silver dollar with the same population may only command one twentieth the price. And I know from years of experience. Very few seriously collect three cent silvers, aka trimes while Morgan dollars have a huge following. See, supply is the same but the demand for the Morgans is through the roof.

You are dealing in remakes of what I consider one of the most beautiful coins ever made, the St. Gaudens $20 gold piece. I have had the original ones from the early 1900s but don’t recommend collecting them. Maybe have one to look at and enjoy. Your coins are exceedingly beautiful but relatively common and while others are willing to pay you profits for dealing in them, I would only recommend keeping a few of the key date if you can get them for close to their raw price. Before the wheels come off the economy, dealing as you are sounds like a great idea. But after a crash it may be difficult to find collectors who still have the ability to buy the more common years of the gold Eagle set. The rarest date may hold up better, especially if you can get it for about raw coin price. And what would you lose anyway ?

A wholesale coin dealer I have known for many years offered to front me some of his coins so that I could sell them on Ebay for a profit. I thought about this and investigated and while there is some money to be made, the combined costs, time and risks were too much for me. Serious coin collectors are a picky bunch and hard to satisfy; I know I was once one myself.

Best wishes and thanks for your contributions,

agnut
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Originally Posted by SlowTrader View Post
One prediction I read was that there will be container ships stacked with used goods for resale overseas.

All that junk we bought on credit and can't afford? 'They'll' be coming to take it back.

(seriously, that's a business for the future. people will make huge money doing that.)
Hi SlowTrader. I remember years ago when the Japanese were buying America’s used European exotic cars and Harley Davidson motorcycles with their profits from selling all sorts of things to us.

I think the Chinese will be different. If their economy can hold together and create a stable middle class, they may be in the market for high mileage cars and a few status cars too. But they didn’t have the size or longevity of middle class that Japan had. I have often thought that a well organized private company could do well exporting certain vehicles to them but it would take an effort beyond my capabilities. Besides, I would like the high MPG autos to remain here to help our own citizens. Additionally, they know better than I about what is most practical in their homeland.

The Japanese hold sway over agricultural areas in California and they ship home many of the best produce goods. I hear that we get the second grade produce. Maybe the Chinese will do the same in order to feed their masses. I understand that their land has been very polluted and their crops have contamination. This is a serious problem and not easily or quickly remedied.

I don’t see the Chinese repossessing our cars. And most of the junk they sold us is either worn out or beat up. I think they will continue to acquire natural resources for their manufacturing behemoths. They are manufacturers for the whole world including their own growing middle class. We are a decreasing percentage of their sales and someday they won’t need us: sooner if our dollar collapses.

And what will they want if our dollar collapses ? Our vast agricultural lands and the potential to feed their 1.3 billion population. I guess it depends on our politicians giving away the very earth upon which we stand. I don’t know how this would work out; whether they would lease the land or be allowed to buy it outright. Or the crops that grow. We could someday go hungry while watching home grown foods being shipped half way around the world to feed those who are wiser than us. Stupid is as stupid does, as Forrest Gump said.

At the citizen level we can protest and write our congressmen but it has become obvious, at least to me, that our wishes are not being honored. My personal solution is to take care of my self and those close to me. And to write about what I see coming and how I would want to be prepared. Also, I would want to be capable of wisely negotiating deals in the future. Bartering rather than using cash may become more prevalent; so much depends upon the intensity, longevity and regulatory factors.

I think the Chinese will only be interested in raw commodities and particularly raw foods to feed their workers. They are an ancient civilization and what use would they have for a fallen empire’s icons ? They will build their own as they have done for thousands of years. Unlike Japan who admired our attributes after WWII, the Chinese don’t. And who could blame them ? Look at all the media insanity focused on someone as vapid as Paris Hilton. Such focus is a mirror of our own society’s values; nothing that an ancient people with world ambitions would want to emulate.

If China’s economy can hold it together through a worldwide crash, I predict that it will lead mankind in a whole new direction. They don’t have to make war but can use their economic might to peacefully reacquire their lost lands, Taiwan in particular. If anything, the Chinese leadership are patient and will wait until the time is ripe. Particularly with their hosting the 2008 Olympics, an unparalleled opportunity to showcase their country to the world. Watch for this as the Olympics are broadcast worldwide next year. The Chinese are expecting some four billion to watch. Afterwards they will make their moves. At least, that’s the way I see it. Could our politicians resist them with the foreign trade surplus they have stockpiled ? In economic war, money is the ammunition. The casualties are slaughter of the falsehoods until there is a readjustment to the realities. America doesn’t have to be invaded but brought down to the level of its abilities in relation to other nations. We had the golden goose but were so impatient and greedy that we now have our hand so far up the goose’s derriere that our fingers are sticking out the bill.

How difficult it is for us will depend upon how each of us have positioned our finances and out outlook toward others.

Look, I am not a communist. My ideal is more along the lines of a commune-ist. It is one of a communal outlook, a feeling of caring for others’ well being. The place where I take issue with leadership is, whether it be in a democracy, a dictatorship or a communist system, the leaders take so much wealth from their people for their own selfish wants. Leadership has a sacred duty to avoid personal financial riches. It is so sleazy when these same leaders could reap the riches of the respect and admiration of their fellow countrymen. This is the potential for true greatness that is tragically lacking today.

Where our heart lies, there also will be our treasure. We work for flimsy fiat currencies and it is worldwide now as never before. And why do we want this currency ? Obviously because we have to pay the piper for our food, housing and everything else. It is the system, the matrix in which we live. This money matrix is so all encompassing that few can live outside of it.

With that being said, this bartering and horse trading thread is an attempt to deal within the matrix but with understandings of easier negotiation toward our goal of personal freedom. There is an old quote that says, “Yearly income 20 pounds, expenses 19 pounds 6 pence; result happiness. Yearly income 20 pounds, expenses 20 pounds 1 pence; result misery.” It refers to the wisdom of living within one’s means and even the most miniscule debt which could not be resolved resulted in misery. In those early days in England there were debtors’ prisons. In present day America, we have debtors’ prisons but they are in the minds of the debtors. And we are not talking about miniscule debt either. Moby Debt.

With credit, millions have mortgaged their futures for present possessions they could not really afford. I don’t know how their debt burden will play out in the future but recent legislation limiting bankruptcy relief is ominous. My younger daughter called me at 4:30 this morning and told me that she was in the process of cashing in her 401K plan in order to pay off her credit cards. She is sick of the debt and high interest. There may be better solutions but I haven’t anything to offer but to tell her if she has any money left over to sell her 2006 Volvo and if need be to add cash to get out from under that huge debt also. I would love to tell her to invest in silver and continue to pay her credit cards and car payment while waiting for silver to go up. But I believe that she will not be willing to be patient for as long as it takes. Maybe some food provisions would be a wiser investment in her case. In any event I am proud of her that she has decided to ACT instead of continue in financial chains. It has taken several long conversations over the last couple of years to get her to see the light. Change doesn’t come easily at first but after the first successful attempt, it becomes less difficult. And enough changes eventually make one fluid and easily adaptable to change.

I fear that millions of Americans will lose their minds if a financial catastrophe were to come upon them suddenly. Some thirty years ago I remember my father showing me an article by Howard Ruff, The Ruff Reports. He said that in the great depression, many people who lost everything just sat down and gave up. They became vacant inside and their blank stares reflected their despair. Depressions are depressing but they don’t have to be.

We are and have been for many years in uncharted territory with fiat currency. Sure it has been tried many times in the past and always without exception failed miserably. But now for the first time, all of the nations of the world are under fiat currency. In post #216 I quoted Bill Fleckinstein where he alluded to “before the coming dislocation hits”. Anybody know what this dislocation might mean ? And hitting ? Sounds like a repudiation of fiat currency as we know it. Could be hyperinflation or deflation too. All I know is to be positioned that when this dislocation hits, I may lose some at one investment and gain some at another. As I have said, the winners in the future may be those who lost the least. This liquidity of which I speak will provide some insulation from sudden dislocations to the financial system. It will also provide the means to take advantage of opportunities at that time.

Mr. Fleckinstein also stated, “it will be necessary to have some liquidity, even if that liquidity is held in a crummy currency like the dollar.” My sentiments exactly. The dollar itself isn’t crummy but those issuing way, way too many dollars has made the dollar a crummy thing to hold as a reliable storehouse of value. Even though the dollar is imperfect, it is still the intermediary by which we barter. It has its uses but needs to be handled like a hot potato. When I have more dollars than I need for deal making I trade for precious metals. The ultimate goal is to be invested in something that holds its value through time. The prize is wealth; bartering and horse trading is just the means to accumulate enough excess to be able to buy and hold that wealth.

The Chinese are buying what they need not what they want; that may come later. They are not to that stage yet and either through a worldwide crash or their deep seated cultural characteristics, they may well not behave like Americans or the Japanese. Maybe they will stay practical throughout. This relative wealth is new to the Chinese people and they have been wildly speculating in their stock market which has gone parabolic as a result. They are new to the game and may have to suffer greatly before they learn that paper investments can be treacherous.

Best wishes,

agnut
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Mr agnut,
First, sorry to hear about your daughter's woes. Knowing what you know, you must have been crying inside when she bought that 2006 Volvo you knew she couldn't afford. I guess parents, at some point, can only watch their kids make mistakes, learn lessons and then help them deal with it after.

Second, your thread is great. I've been following it for since you started it. Lots of good nuts and bolts lessons, good inspiration, and some wisdom thrown in.

Third, I have to say, this image made me chuckle: "We had the golden goose but were so impatient and greedy that we now have our hand so far up the goose’s derriere that our fingers are sticking out the bill."

But a it's a wry, "standing amide the wreckage, I can only laugh not to cry" type chuckle.

Regards, and thanks.

Oh, it's not just China. I think lots of used good will be going lots of somewhere elses. And it's not just plasmas and crappy consumer goods. Equipment, fixtures, machinery, used late model Volvo's.....
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Originally Posted by AuNuggets View Post
I think what agnut is seeing on his local level is something others of us have been seeing in our own areas for several months now, i.e. what amounts to a localized liquidity crunch for second hand consumer goods. But breaking it all down into the category of "buying only the necessities" gives me pause to wonder what kind of impact this will have on collectibles, stocks, bonds, and gold or silver. At some point, this "cash crunch" is bound to affect all of these too. Gold and silver in particular are hovering near their 200 day moving averages, and even the shorter-term moving averages appear to be close to convergence with the actual spot price of the PMs. This "could" be a good buy signal, but on the other hand could be a major turning point to the downside. Time will tell, but right now is a good time to step back and watch things VERY closely, and as agnut suggests, watch that cash.
Hi AuNuggets. Good question. I would expect a cash crunch to cause collectibles, stocks and bonds to fall. Gold and silver would also probably take a hit since the paper PM market determines the physical PM market prices. Especially those paper speculators buying on margin.

It also depends upon whether or not there is a simultaneous recognition of the failure of fiat currencies to maintain their purchasing power. If so, people will be running to the precious metals where they will find that it is a tiny door through which a multitude are trying to exit all at once. A fire in the theater is a close analogy. It should be quite a spectacle. As long as we aren’t in the theater ourselves. Oh, the humanity ! Now where have we heard that before ? Oh yeah, when the Hindenberg dirigible burned and crashed.

Any readers want to be selling their PMs at that time ? I have wondered if this scenario of a repudiation of fiat currencies would cause PM sellers to not sell since they don’t know what the fiat currency would be worth in the near future. I’m talking about the coin dealers as well as PM investors.

Imagine that you were a coin dealer and you had just heard that the fiat dollar was falling precipitously. Would you welcome in all those pounding at your store’s front door , desperate for gold and silver ? Or would you take a “shop holiday” like the banks have done in the past and are probably doing in such a scenario ?

Think about it. A time in which buyers would go a begging for anyone foolish enough to part with their precious metals in trade for paper currency which is in imminent collapse. I know I wouldn’t sell but wait patiently for the dust to settle. After all, we PM investors have learned to be patient, haven’t we ? Might be a sort of delicious waiting. A flipside to the angst we PM investors have suffered in waiting for the true value of the PMs to manifest.

With the FED between a rock and a hard place, I don’t see how they can bail out a crashing market even by infusing truckloads of fiat currencies. Their “cure” might kill the patient. Hyperinflation is like heart palpitations; a lot of fast beating before the flatline and eternity. The old fiat patient has died and a new one is resurrected from the dead. Don’t be fooled; a new fiat currency no matter how sexy and enticing it may appear is only another Frankenstein’s monster constructed from the same dead body as before. And coincidentally, both the Frankenstein’s monster and fiat currency are afraid of fire. Sometimes my little analogies fit like a glove but sometimes they need a little fine tuning as when doing a jig saw puzzle. I keep a pair of scissors handy to fit those stubborn pieces.

On the contrary, if we have a market crash that either is not too severe or not accompanied by a collapse of the currency, we will continue to schlep along until a hungry bear picks up the scent of our wounded condition. And that can only be described as a combination of a nature film and a Nightmare On Elm Street horror show. Oh, the humanity redux !

What a balancing act the illegitimacy of fiat currency causes us all to perform. Although being born into it I can step way back and see it for the misery it causes. Qui bono ? Those who created and those still fostering the system. The words illegitimacy and fostering are not carelessly chosen. The word bastard comes to mind, doesn’t it ?

Hard to say what silver will do in the next few months. We all have to go with what we feel comfortable with. Never be all in silver with no cash; it is an unhedged bet. And we all have to live in the meantime.

We may even see a stock market speculative frenzy, a parabolic rise before a crash.

Best wishes and JMHO,

Agnut
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

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Originally Posted by agnut View Post
Think about it. A time in which buyers would go a begging for anyone foolish enough to part with their precious metals in trade for paper currency which is in imminent collapse. I know I wouldn’t sell but wait patiently for the dust to settle.
Agnut, as always, thanks for posting.

I do have a slight quibble with the quote above. If the scenario that you outlined does happen, that is probably the exact right time to sell some of your hoard. This is when peaks happen - irrational exhuberance if you will.

We have all heard stories of new gadgets hitting the market, selling for multiples of value so someone can be first. I expect a break in the dam scenario will drive many to panic and bid like crazy early on. When the dust does settle, a more representative market will take its place, which will probably be much less than the peaks that happened just before it.

As an aside, here is a picture I posted yesterday referencing the Hindenburg. Just for a smile.

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Question Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

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Originally Posted by Krugerrand View Post
Thanks for your post on the garage sales, agnut. Our next door neighbor recently had a garage sale, and when I went over to have a look at what she had to offer, I took a few minutes to talk with her. Business had been very slow.... not many visitors, and few of those that did bought anything. I didn't see much worth buying so this may have been partly a function of what she had for sale, but perhaps it's more of the trend you're seeing.

While this isn't really a bartering story, it does relate to getting the most out of what we have, and fixing up old vehicles: today my cousin (a different one) and I worked on a 1974 Honda road motorcycle (can't recall the model). My uncle passed it along to my cousin, after the bike had sat in his garage for 20 years or so. The last time it was even registered was 1990. We took apart and cleaned the carbs, replaced the plugs and fuel lines, changed the oil, and jumped it off a spare battery until he can buy a proper battery for it, and she fired right up! It was quite a thrill to see an old relic jump to life after sitting in a garage for so long, never being run. Couldn't take it out for a spin as it still needs a battery, but it seems to operate in gear just fine for the few feet the jumper cables would reach. It was a good experience for me to see an old bike that I'm sure many would figure to toss be put back to use, and I learned a fair bit about working on motorcycles at the same time. My cousin says he's going to ride it all over the place now: to the store, out to his dad's house 45 mins away, etc. etc. Not bad for free and $10 worth of parts so far (still needs new air cleaners and possibly rebuild kit for the carbs, and the battery, so maybe $50-75 more? Anyway, just thought I'd share.
Hi Kruggerand. As I have said before, this looks like a time to pull in our horns and buy only what we need rather than what we want. And any deals better be screaming bargains that can easily be sold for a profit.

Your story about the Honda motorcycle was yet another example of wise bartering and horse trading. That is, if you will look at it this way. You and your cousin bartered your time and a little cash in order to make a motorcycle much more valuable. You traded your time mostly. And when we work, we usually get paid in dollars. Those dollars we trade for bargains when we can.

The overview is that if we find an item that needs work, we must calculate the amount of money and time we need to invest in order to have a finished item. If it took 200 hours to fix up an item and it was only worth $500, we were working for $2.50 per hour. Time is money. Your efforts are worth money. Now how much we make per hour will determine how in tune with these calculations in advance of getting into an opportunity. Some items, even if they are for free, are not a bargain because they require more work than they are worth the labor that needs to be put into them.

When looking at a car deal, I estimate what it would cost if I had to pay someone else to repair it to salable condition. If there is still a good profit to be made, it is hard to lose especially since I am doing most of the work myself.

I looked at a Jaguar XJ6 the other day. I could have it for free if I just towed it off the property. The reason I didn’t take it is that the work to fix it or even tear it apart and sell the pieces would involve too many hours per dollar gained.

Our labor has a highest and best use if we will always be aware of this when considering getting into a project. Always be thinking of how many hours it would take to fix an item and calculate how much per hour you would make.

I am not buying much lately because I am focused on rebuilding transmissions. When I am in full swing I can make great money and it is repetitive so I don’t have to “switch gears” all the time to each different deal. A production line is a good way if you can find one that works for you.

I feel that in time the larger deals will appear. Right now we are in a transition phase of going from a seemingly good economy to a crashed economy. I will be looking for these deals someday but not now because public sentiment is too positive now even though the underlying truth is that we are like a hungry snake eating its own tail. First bite may not seem too bad but in time, even a snake can’t contort enough to bite the back of its head. I make this nasty analogy because I feel that those in deep debt are in a similarly nasty situation.

A company going under and my buying their inventory for a song is one example of future opportunities. I have done this a few times and it was very profitable. Remember that when buying in a crashed economy, the price you sell for will also have crashed. And maybe the demand also. So be careful in such a scenario.

Best wishes,

Agnut

P.S. Here is an example of sharp deal making. A while back Ponce made an agreement with an owner of a gas station for 1,000 gallons of gas to be used as he needed. He paid $1.69 per gallon for the 1,000 gallons two years ago. Can you see the problem for the gas station owner ? That’s right, the gas prices went up horrendously and Ponce was buying the gas for less than half of the price now. The owner was crying the blues for his lack of foresight.

As I understand it, Ponce did this same deal later. And with the same gas station owner ! Seems that some people never learn. Ponce even allowed the owner to rescind the agreement because the owner’s wife got mad at her husband.

But that is not the end of it. Recently, Ponce made a deal for gas using a silver round at current spot price. He bought the silver years ago for $5.15 per ounce. At the time I talked with him, gas was $3.50 per gallon and silver spot was $13.20 so he would be getting 3.77 gallons for one silver ounce. Since Ponce had paid only $5.15 for the silver ounce, that comes to his getting gas for $1.37 per gallon. Not too shabby, huh ?

Wisely, Ponce was looking at the whole picture which included the future. His allowing the station owner to rescind the deal and by doing so he assured himself of having a supply of gasoline in the future when there is a shortage.
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Old 06-22-2007
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

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Originally Posted by SlowTrader View Post
Mr agnut,
First, sorry to hear about your daughter's woes. Knowing what you know, you must have been crying inside when she bought that 2006 Volvo you knew she couldn't afford. I guess parents, at some point, can only watch their kids make mistakes, learn lessons and then help them deal with it after.

Second, your thread is great. I've been following it for since you started it. Lots of good nuts and bolts lessons, good inspiration, and some wisdom thrown in.

Third, I have to say, this image made me chuckle: "We had the golden goose but were so impatient and greedy that we now have our hand so far up the goose’s derriere that our fingers are sticking out the bill."

But a it's a wry, "standing amide the wreckage, I can only laugh not to cry" type chuckle.

Regards, and thanks.

Oh, it's not just China. I think lots of used good will be going lots of somewhere elses. And it's not just plasmas and crappy consumer goods. Equipment, fixtures, machinery, used late model Volvo's.....
Hi Slow Trader. The young usually have to learn the hard way. As we age, we should be learning and changing our ways. But as they say, “there’s NO fool like an old fool”. Someone who went through their lives and remained a fool throughout their many years on this earth. Wow.

I wish that my daughter had at least asked me about what kind of car to buy. I have owned hundreds of cars and been an automotive mechanic and car nut since my school days. I bet she thought to call me but didn’t want to listen to my opinions because she wanted something far different than I would have advised. In her income range there are several options; she could buy an inexpensive commuter car like a Toyota Camry. Or a Mercedes 240 diesel. And that is only the cheap practical cars. She could also have a used deluxe Mercedes for a fraction of what that Volvo cost. And pay cash and own it rather than rent it from the bank at high interest. Ugh

People buying new cars in this economy are like people who have been buying houses in the last year or two. The peak has been attained and we are on the slippery slope downward now. I wonder what a $50,000 new luxury car will sell for in a couple of years. And not to forget, almost all of these new cars are bought on credit. Wow again.

My daughter is a real character and a ball to have around. She only visits her brothers and me every other year since she lives almost 3,000 miles away. Mid Florida to near the Canadian Pacific border is quite a long flight. I have told her if she gets tired of the rat race she can come and stay with us. Our last conversation was the first time that she sounded like she might someday. I had mixed feelings that she was becoming exhausted with dealing with all the responsibilities and the hope that she would come and live with us where I could protect her. It is a stressful world out there for someone trying to make enough to live a comfortable life. And that’s not even considering putting away savings for retirement. I haven’t spoken to her about this yet and may not until she sees that her spending habits are what got her into debt in the first place.

There is an old cowboy saying, “He’s going so fast that he’s passing up more than he’s catching up to”. This describes so much of our population, including my daughter.

I’m going to shift gears here and talk about money. After all, it is the intermediary used most often in bartering and horse trading.

====================

Money is like a drug and many are in withdrawal until their next fix, aka payday. Trouble is, the pusher has ingeniously made it easy to get their fix any time they wanted, whether they had the ability to pay back or not. After larger and larger doses, the drug has less and less effect. So now we have millions deeply hooked on drugs/money. In addition, the pusher is cutting the potency of the drug with inflation. This causes the money addict to need more as time passes to just maintain, much less increase his addiction.

The difference between a drug pusher and a money pusher is that the latter has a legally binding contract for the money addict to pay back in full with interest. To put it bluntly, they own your ass !

These trillions of dollars of debt have to be paid back with ever compounding interest and I cannot for the life of me see how this will be possible. If someone went into debt in good times, how can they dig out of debt in bad times ?

So what is to happen to those unable to pay off their debts ? I suspect that the answer is darker and more insidious than we may realize. Debt man walking was a phrase I used in the past to describe such people.

Is world fiat currency the largest, longest running Ponzi scheme inflicted on mankind ?

We have to step way back and look at the whole picture of how we arrived at this sorry state and wonder what the outcome will be.

Someday John MacKay’s book, Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds, may need a revised edition to include the times in which we are living right now.

Because if anyone who lived 100 years ago or more were teleported into the present, he would be shocked and dismayed at our economic system and its doublespeak like in George Orwell’s book 1984.

Credit card ? Debt card

Stock investments ? Casino gambling

Bond investments ? Guaranteed loss of purchasing power

Real estate ? Unreal estate

Biometric identification ? Livestock tagging and tracking

Public education ? Propaganda and dumbing down

Television ? Best instrument for turning gray matter into brown matter. Bread and circuses

News media ? Corporate and governmental propaganda

Inflation ? Continual theft

Internal Revenue Service ? Unconstitutional confiscation

The dollar ? Future toilet paper

So what are we to do in order to protect ourselves ? The answer to most of this is so simple. Step outside the matrix and see it for what it is. Having physical precious metals in possession has faithfully served mankind for millennia. They are a debt to no one. They are therefore outside the matrix.

We are on the third dollar in the U.S. since its birth. What happened to the other two ? They collapsed into worthlessness. Were any of them backed with gold and silver before they collapsed ? “There’s yer sign“, as said on the Jeff Foxworthy show.

I didn’t intend to seem to go so far afield here but with our bartering and horse trading, we must be ever mindful of what fiat currency really is and to squirrel away profits into real wealth for our future.

Here is a recent article that tells it like it is :

CRACK-UP BOOM, PART III: Escape From the Dollar!
By Ty Andros

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2007/0621.html

This is a must read for all of us. Please take the time to digest it slowly. I have presented this article to embolden readers into acting to protect themselves. Bartering and horse trading is only part of the journey to wealth and security. Along the way, we need to be picking up some real wealth for our uncertain future.

I think there isn’t much time left to prepare. What may seem like small moves now will be critical in the future. A good rule of thumb is to only put away enough food, precious metals and provisions that you will be satisfied with your preparations in a “dislocation“. What is this dislocation anyway ? Well, right now we are in dis location and in the future we will be in dat location. A different world.

I’m not a doomsday type but rather willing to see life for what it is and to protect myself and loved ones as best as I can. We are facing some humongous changes. No one can honestly deny this. And we must be adaptable to change in order to survive intact so that we can prosper later.

In Depression I, almost nobody had any money. Why ? Millions were in the stock market and buying stocks on margin too. And most everyone with means had their money in the bank. When they both failed, there was only the cash in physical possession that saved those prescient enough to have diversified in advance. I read a story of one man living through Depression I who had a $20 gold piece (it may have been a $20 bill since Rusevelt called for gold confiscation). Anyway, this man wanted to buy some things at the local country store. The merchant said that he didn’t have the money to make change and would it be alright if he held the money as payment in advance for things the buyer may need in the future. As time passed and items were bought, a ledger accounted for the balance and it was a few years until that $20 was used up.

The point is that if this man had not held this $20 in his hand after the collapse, his life would not have been as bearable those next years.

The difference today as I see it is that the very viability of the dollar is in question. The crack up boom article above clearly tells us what we should do in preparation. And don’t be surprised at a liquidity crunch that turns into a deflationary scenario. And that is with all of the trillions in fiat currency floating around the world. How can that be ? Well, almost all of it is electronic and not even paper currency. And what paper currency is being printed is mostly to replace old worn out currency. In other words, the money supply increase doesn’t really exist except in cyberspace. Starting to get the picture ?

I find that one of the best solutions is to not want to buy anything unless it enriches my life more than the loss of security that that wealth provides. With that in mind, I find myself looking at all the crap I have and trying to figure how to get rid of it as fast as possible. Not the things I will need but the crap I bought in past years that will become a burden in a depression. This thinking is just a continuation of what I wrote in silver musing VI, Think 10 Times. It was true then and is true now and into the future. Actually, all that I write is in hopes that it stands the test of time. But being only human with incomplete data, I am limited in my ability to be dead nuts accurate. So take everything I write with a grain of salt and decide for yourselves.

This might be a good book to understand others and how to present yourself to buyers. It also will teach you to watch for the signs of a salesman’s manipulations. It is called “Life Is A Series Of Presentations’ by Tony Jeary. There are several excerpts that will give you an idea of the value of this book.


http://books.google.com/books?id=LlU...pe2QOI#PPP1,M1


Knowledge is powerful and one of, if not the best bargains available. This book is available used for $1 plus shipping over at http://www.abebooks.com/ .

Best wishes and JMHO,

Agnut
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Old 06-26-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Agnut..

Quote:
Originally Posted by SlowTrader
Mr agnut,
First, sorry to hear about your daughter's woes. Knowing what you know, you must have been crying inside when she bought that 2006 Volvo you knew she couldn't afford. I guess parents, at some point, can only watch their kids make mistakes, learn lessons and then help them deal with it after.
Yes, it is very frustrating!

My BMW driving Co-worker has done it AGAIN!!

He is trying to unload his 2006 Honda Element he purchased about 4-5 months ago for.........

$4k less then the loan on it, so he can buy a toyota Tacoma. He offered it to me if i would take over payments of "Only" $400 a month.

this is like the 4-5 time in the last 3 years he has done this type of thing, always taking a loss of $1,000's each time. I think he thinks this new $300k house he bought is going to provide him with more cash equity to remove and spend on crap.

I guess it remains to be seen whether he is right or wrong.


Anyways i posted this 4 weeks ago...

Quote:
After i recieve this last 1 OZ $50 Gold Eagle i bought i feel i am "Good" on the PM front...

Man was i wrong with that

my stash has grown


Peace
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

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Originally Posted by fasTTcar View Post
Agnut, as always, thanks for posting.

I do have a slight quibble with the quote above. If the scenario that you outlined does happen, that is probably the exact right time to sell some of your hoard. This is when peaks happen - irrational exhuberance if you will.

We have all heard stories of new gadgets hitting the market, selling for multiples of value so someone can be first. I expect a break in the dam scenario will drive many to panic and bid like crazy early on. When the dust does settle, a more representative market will take its place, which will probably be much less than the peaks that happened just before it.

As an aside, here is a picture I posted yesterday referencing the Hindenburg. Just for a smile.

Attachment 29696
Hi fasTTcar. That photo you posted is so wrong ! I was laughing for quite a while. Actually, I was reminded of living in Miami and watching the manatees silently cruising through the canals. Just shadows slipping through the waters like small submarines. Harmless creatures in contrast to the huge alligator that once chased me. But that is another story.

Your post about selling some precious metals in a price rise made me think. There are three types of PM owners.

First there is the speculator who jumps in and out of the market, taking profits on short term changes both up and down.

Second is the investor who holds for the long term.

And third is the survivalist. He holds Pms as one of his preparation items.


In a historical context, Depression I was a deflationary depression. The value and soundness of the fiat currency was not in question then. But today, all fiat currency is to some in question and in time will be obvious to all. Who cares if the dollar continues to remain at about 82 in relation to a basket of other currencies ? Because the dollar is being printed like mad and the other currencies are also being printed like mad. What is revealing is what our dollar will buy as time passes. Say the dollar were to remain at about 82 for the next five years. But prices for all the things we need to live were to double. All this really means is that all fiat currencies have lost half their purchasing power. A fiat currency measured against a basket of other fiat currencies is only useful to see which currency is racing to the bottom fastest. A poor benchmark of purchasing value. And what will the prices of precious metals be doing in this 5 years ? Will they remain at the same prices or at least double ? That is why many people hold precious metals; a good bulwark against the ravages of unrestrained fiat currency printing.


"To be ignorant of what happened before you were born is to be ever a child. For what is man's lifetime unless the memory of past events is woven with those of earlier times?"
Cicero

The speculator is living in the present and only focuses on quick profits.

Both the investor and survivalist are students of history and own precious metals as a result of their accumulated knowledge. However, there is a difference between them. The investor may sell his precious metals when the price rises sufficiently in his mind. This better be in an environment of economic stability or his gains may prove to be a Pyrrhic victory. And we sure as Hell don’t live in stable times, do we ?

The survivalist, as I said, holds precious metals as a part of his defense against an uncertain future. He has no plans to sell his Pms for anything other than what he will need in a calamitous future. The tendency to mark a survivalist as some kind of cuckoo is wrong; I tend to think of him as a harsh realist who knows that the potential for collapse is always there and is not willing to leave himself unprepared. It is not cheap being a survivalist, either in mindset or finances. I know; I was there myself in the years before Y2K. After the potential disaster passed and relative normalcy returned, I came out of survival mode as I reappraised the new scenario. Afterwards, many said that Y2K didn’t happen and went on their oblivious way. I remembered it and added it to my knowledge of what would be necessary in a future calamity.

Just because gold and silver fall in relation to the fiat currency is no good reason for an investor to throw logic out the window and sell precious metals. There has to be a better reason than to react to the daily, weekly, seasonal gyrations/manipulations. To do so would contradict historical evidence. What could be a good reason ?

In my case, I had too much precious metals in relation to my other preparations. I also have a new business and have had to invest heavily in order to have a broad enough variety of merchandise to sell. It was not easy to sell any precious metals but with long consideration, I made my move. The returns are anticipated to be superior than if I had held extra quantities of precious metals. In my case, it was better to create a source of income that would pay my bills and hopefully increase savings. And these savings would go back into precious metals as much as I perceived necessary. It is all a mental weighing of relative importance in our individual lives. And we are all in our own individual set of life’s circumstances. For me to tell others to do a certain thing with their precious metals would be foolish without fully knowing their needs.

For example, say I have $150,000 in silver ounces socked away. And I don’t have any source of income. My bills are $3,000 per month. If silver didn’t rise in price, I would be without any silver in 4 years and two months. Should I be willing to risk this when I have a skill that could be put to use to recoup my investment within a year or two ? Just remember what silver did from the early 1980s to the late 1990s. Many years of going nowhere. So four years in the context of recent past events is comparatively short.

I’m not saying that silver will lay dormant for the next four years but will instead increase dramatically. Exactly when, who knows ? Just my beliefs. Do I sound contradictory ? Not really; only a portion of my precious metals were sold in order to secure a steady source of income to protect what I continue to hold. I don’t have much confidence that there will be stability for the next few years but am using my new income to assure that I am not forced to sell my Pms to pay my bills.

In fact, I dropped my prices far below my competition. With inflation increasing, have I lost my mind ? Maybe, but listen me out. First, I am a new business and all comparative quality of my and competitors’ product being the same, my edge is in having the best prices. I anticipate that our economy will go in the dumper. When that happens, I better have some business accounts built up, some reputation. In the meantime, I am taking away work from my competition. My prices are so low that nobody would want to try to compete with me. It would be suicidal.

A job or small business is a preparation. It is different that having a stockpile of food or guns or precious metals but still a crucial part of the picture. Each of us have different needs. Mine are high and inescapable while Ponce’s are only about $4,300 per year. Sounds incredible, doesn’t it ? Well, Ponce didn’t position himself accidentally but with long term thinking and planning. In fact, he is so strongly prepared that he can face the future, no matter what happens. This doesn’t mean that he is totally without risk but has relatively so little risk that he can sit back and enjoy life. Believe me, this level of preparations is not cheap or easy. And it is extremely rare; I don’t know anyone in this position except possibly a few on this website. This is the price Ponce has been willing to pay in order to have peace of mind. He worked hard for it and he deserves it and I hold the highest admiration for him. Since I am in contact with him, I can pass on some of his thoughts that may be insightful. He is always ahead of his time; a visionary. And one tough cookie. I could tell you stories about him that would curl your hair. Anybody know that he has three purple hearts ?

We who study at the GIM website are searching for further knowledge of how to better face the future. It isn’t that we are looking to get rich but rather to continue our lives in a respectable manner. Personally, I am pretty disgusted with what is going on in our world. There has always been corruption but the sheer scale of it now is overwhelming. And consequently, uncertainty has become overwhelming. No wonder it has become so difficult to plan for the future.

I hope that this bartering and horse trading thread will help readers to breathe a bit easier. Just remember that if we do not ACT and adapt, we will fall behind. Our power to direct our lives is greater than we can imagine. After all the years I have been deal making, I am still surprised at times. I guess it is the positive side of uncertainty. To not ACT results in certainty; the certainty of remaining where we are as the world changes.

Best wishes,

Agnut
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Agnut..



Yes, it is very frustrating!

My BMW driving Co-worker has done it AGAIN!!

He is trying to unload his 2006 Honda Element he purchased about 4-5 months ago for.........

$4k less then the loan on it, so he can buy a toyota Tacoma. He offered it to me if i would take over payments of "Only" $400 a month.

this is like the 4-5 time in the last 3 years he has done this type of thing, always taking a loss of $1,000's each time. I think he thinks this new $300k house he bought is going to provide him with more cash equity to remove and spend on crap.

I guess it remains to be seen whether he is right or wrong.


Anyways i posted this 4 weeks ago...




Man was i wrong with that

my stash has grown


Peace
Hi Silver Monkey. I wrote about this on another thread by Scorpio :

Finally, a voice of economic reason

t=151834

If you missed it, you should read it carefully as it may well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Bill Gross and Bill Fleckenstein are well known and respected. If the financial world doesn’t stand up and take notice, I don’t what it will take for them to see that we stand at the precipice.

Another article of importance is :

INVESTMENT LANDFILL:
HOW PROFESSIONALS DUMP
THEIR TOXIC WASTE ON YOU
by Paul Tustain

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2007/0703.html

Another damning article is “Another Great Depression ?” by Mike Whitney :

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=6807


So what the heck does my writing about a real estate lending debacle on a thread have to do with bartering and horse trading ? Everything !

If we are heading into a liquidity crunch and worse, we have to know this in order to be extremely cautious in ALL of our dealings. We don’t live in a vacuum and when I began this thread January 5, things were different. Hoo boy, that doesn’t even describe it ! For if we compare the news six months ago to what is happening today, we can get somewhat of a picture of how fast things are changing.

The overview of this whole situation tells me to pull in my bull horns and wait for the fallout to settle. The problem is, these toxic subprime loans will be coming due for many, many months to come. I also fear that the fallout is as deadly as what comes from a nuclear bomb. This is no isolated incident like the LTCM collapse in 1998. It is systemic and will affect all of us. I wrote once that in the future, the biggest winners will be those who lost the least.

If we have a paradigm change from this, the way we look at deal making will also have to change. I have been watching for defunct companies’ inventory sales and haven’t seen anything yet. Too soon as what is being sold this way now is probably being absorbed by other companies and a few opportunists. As we proceed down the slope however, there will be more and more offered for sale and auction. Just remember that we won’t know when we have reached the bottom and can only cautiously invest as our judgment dictates.

Sometimes I wonder if most of the cash will be sucked out of the economy by inflation and then the banks will quit lending. Cute. Can you see the necessity to have cash in hand in such a situation ? Yeah, I don’t like the idea of it but that doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t prepare for it. This is what happened in Depression 1 and this expression “liquidity crunch” being talked about on the internet has my undivided attention.

It may seem paradoxical that we read so much about all the trillions of fiat currency being created worldwide and yet, Joe lunchbucket on the street level is in dire straits. I think the answer is simply that the currency isn’t trickling down as in the past, inflation is increasing faster than wages and people aren’t saving money but rather getting into debt to maintain their lifestyles. I don’t think they either are capable of forward thinking or of facing the reality of their spending habits. As I said, they are more to be pitied than scorned since they are operating under diminished capacity. Like the village idiot. And I mean that in a nice way.

It seems eerily parallel to what happened preceding and during Depression 1 and what is happening now. In the Roaring Twenties, the market was obliviously enthusiastic and many were buying stocks on thin margins. Now that we have been through “irrational exuberance”, we face having to pay the piper. It took a considerable time for Depression 1 to affect the average American. I think they hit bottom in 1932. Of course it went on until WWII. A Hell of a way to right the ship of state. Maybe history will repeat. It does, you know.

I think it may be time to write about cars and how we can save money on them as well as find some profitable deals. This has been a part of my automotive career for the last 35 years and I may be able to lend some insight into how to approach this expensive necessity. I have read that a car is the second most expensive investment we buy. This may be true for millions of folks but it doesn’t have to be this way. Wisely dealing with our transportation needs can prove to be a huge monthly savings and therefore should be discussed at length and in great detail. I am only too happy to do this since it is something I know well.

You all have to realize that I get a lot out of writing and reading others’ posts. A friend said that I should start a website and charge for what I write. Nice compliment but I am no genius and don’t hold myself up to be an expert but only an avid student. My pay is what I learn and I sometimes feel that I am getting back more than I invest.

I’m still blown away by this GIM website and that it even exists. Every day is an independence day here.

Best wishes,

Agnut

P.S. Silver Monkey, this fellow worker may seem to be doing fine but is no safer than a hermit crab crawling along on the seabed thinking he doesn’t need a shell to protect him. He is vulnerable to all kinds of predators. It is only a matter of time. Groupers and sharks abound in the financial world.
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Agnut

First of all I want to thank you for the great thread. There is a lot of insightful thinking there.

One of my thoughts, while reading your musings, was where are you storing all this stuff you are accumulating for bartering? Myself, I would have a tough time on my 1/2 acre lot keeping very much.:D But my read might be off there and you're just horse trading in the here and now, not accumulating a big pile.

At any rate, keep up with the writing - I like it!

still a newbe,
bf
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

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Agnut

First of all I want to thank you for the great thread. There is a lot of insightful thinking there.

One of my thoughts, while reading your musings, was where are you storing all this stuff you are accumulating for bartering? Myself, I would have a tough time on my 1/2 acre lot keeping very much.:D But my read might be off there and you're just horse trading in the here and now, not accumulating a big pile.

At any rate, keep up with the writing - I like it!

still a newbe,
bf
Hi bottom feeder and welcome to GIM .

Where am I storing all the stuff ? Good question. Much of it I sell when I have the time. Some goes on Ebay and some I keep because I need it for my own purposes. At the bottom of bartering and horse trading is bettering my life with things that I would not buy at retail prices. A London Fog jacket that would cost $150 in a store cost me $3 at a garage sale. I have two of them. And these jackets looked as though they had only been worn once or twice. What were the sellers thinking ?

There are only a few things I buy new, though on sale. Maybe a new TV. I have owned hundreds of cars and have never had a new one.

By the way, I sold my two 1987 Jaguar XJ6 sedans with many spare parts. I had $2,000 total in them and sold them for $3,000. Not a bunch of profit but I got that urge for a luxury car out of my system. Now with the cash I am looking for a 1988 to 1990 Toyota Camry wagon with 4 cylinder and automatic transmission. I need the automatic for my son who has Asperger’s syndrome and who would have a hard time driving with a stick shift. See, all things have to be considered when sizing up a purchase. And I consider the Toyota line a best value in a used car.

I wrote recently that I was thinking of selling the Jaguars because of the attention they may attract in bad times. I want to be as inconspicuous as possible

With cars I DO have a problem. I have 10 vehicles and a boat. They take up a lot of space and I will be writing more about the care and feeding of these iron (and plastic) beasties. For many people, transportation is the second biggest expense after housing and it doesn’t have to be. My last truck was a 1992 Dodge ¾ ton Cummins diesel that I bought for $3,000 and sold for $6,000. I replaced it with a 4 wheel drive Chevy truck. I paid $1,000 and pocketed $5,000 difference. The Chevy isn’t as nice but I didn’t want to be using the Dodge to be putting my boat in the salt water. I hate to rust a nice vehicle and the Chevy already has rust so the more, the merrier. At least until the body rots in half or I fall through the floorboards.

I have been crazy busy with the new transmission shop; sales are doing well. Nobody would want to compete with my prices anyway. I have geared my prices in anticipation of the economy becoming tight and therefore car owners will be more attentively looking for the best value.


I won’t be able to write as much for a while as I am moving to a 10 acre property. It looks like the perfect bugout place. Great well, tons of firewood for years, a large barn, garage with workshop and an almost new house. Lots of work though; I’m not kidding myself there.

Best wishes,

agnut
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It’s strange you should mention London Fog jackets – I like them myself and have four or five light ones plus one raincoat. All were purchased at Goodwill for four or five bucks.
As far as cars go I have never sold a car for more that I bought it for. Mostly I drive them into the ground and have the junk dealer haul them off. I bought one new car in my life, that being a 1970 Ford Maverick for $1999. All the rest have been from $100 beaters (back in the days) up to a $14,000 Ford F250 Powerstroke. I kept a Dodge D50 for 14 years and let a gardener fellow trade me for $300 worth of work. That truck cost me $1100 when I bought it. It had 260,000 miles on it when I gave it to him. The PwrStk I still have (love it).
How severe is your son’s AS? All I know about it is that it is a learning disorder similar to autism but that it has very wide range of severity. Does he have any compensation like a high memory retention?
Congrats on your new place. I’m really jealous now! I’m stuck in the city for six more years until I can retire. I hope there is something to retire from. I bet you are going to be way to busy to write much so I just hope you get a chance to read this long post from from a short guy.

happy moving
BF
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First off, thank you everybody (esp. agnut) for this incredible wealth of information and experience. Growing up I was lucky enough to absorb a lot of the qualities and attitudes required for holding on to wealth instead of pissing it away. My dad is an airline pilot who saw his job and a frightening amount of his wealth disappear when the big national carrier that employed him went under. This happened when I was only 6 or 7, and my parents tell me stories about how I used to tell them not to worry about giving me lunch money or Christmas presents, that I didn't need it. Obviously they didn't listen, and I still ate lunch. Looking back, it's hard to know whether to laugh or cry. Traumatic as that apparently was for me back then, looking around at my peers I'm glad I don't suffer from the same lack of understanding of the value of money as so many of them do. Understanding is one thing, but for the most part I lack real experience in bartering and deal making. Still, I suppose I'm a step ahead of most simply because I know what it is that I do not know.

I just graduated from college this spring, and I've only in the past 6 months really began to understand how big a whole we've dug for ourselves. The crash course in real world economics I've found online this past month has been infinitely more educational than half the junk that passes for college courses these days. It really is embarrassing to remember some of the things I got college credit for. I think another indicator of our economic mess, related to both the absurd cost of housing and the criminal rate of inflation, is the fact that I and many of my peers find ourselves simply unable to be financially independent after college. And I don't even have any debt. At first I was quite upset that I had to move back in with the parents, after all, I'd just spent the last four years pretty much on my own. But as I've spoken with more and more recent graduates, I'm no longer surprised to hear that they too have moved back home. For many people my age, there is no good financial alternative. I feel like we've been sold a brand new product whose "use by" date is sometime back in the late 90's.

But now to the real point of this post. The analogy of nobody wanting to yell "Fire" in the crowded theater has been brought up a few times in this thread and its linked articles. Can anybody make a guess as to the real consequences of yelling "Fire!" at this point in the game? Or maybe a better analogy would be the impact of pulling the fire alarm in the hopes that everyone files out of the theater in an orderly fashion. Would this be better than quietly walking out while knowing that everyone else is about to be burnt to a crisp? I bring this up because I am currently struggling with this issue. I am looking to start a career in public policy because I know that our current policies have failed dismally. And if we continue to leave the decision making up to the people who can't see that, well obviously we're just gonna get more of the same. Maybe it's too late, but I'm pretty passionate about this and want to work towards educating the sheeple and fixing the broken system. My dilemma is I'm beginning to think that train might have already left the station. I see the vital need for me to make whatever preparations I can to prevent myself being swept away by the coming crash, but I also feel a strong pull to work now to try and lessen the total damage. Set a firebreak, if you will. I am by no means a bleeding heart; I just don't want to stand aside and watch while my country glibly throws itself off a cliff. Of course, this means I'd be living and working in DC...probably not the safest of places these days nor the best to prepare for WTSHTF.

I'm pretty sure I know what the majority response will be (if any), but I figured why not go fishing and see what bites? So please, hit me with it. How can I ignore you're opinion if you don't share it with me?:D Reading back over all this, I realize a some of it may be a bit off topic for this thread. Not totally, I hope. If so, feel free to flame me mercilessly.

Oh and good luck with the move agnut. Now that I finally finished reading through this thread, I'm gonna miss regular updates.
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

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Originally Posted by bottom feeder View Post
It’s strange you should mention London Fog jackets – I like them myself and have four or five light ones plus one raincoat. All were purchased at Goodwill for four or five bucks.
As far as cars go I have never sold a car for more that I bought it for. Mostly I drive them into the ground and have the junk dealer haul them off. I bought one new car in my life, that being a 1970 Ford Maverick for $1999. All the rest have been from $100 beaters (back in the days) up to a $14,000 Ford F250 Powerstroke. I kept a Dodge D50 for 14 years and let a gardener fellow trade me for $300 worth of work. That truck cost me $1100 when I bought it. It had 260,000 miles on it when I gave it to him. The PwrStk I still have (love it).
How severe is your son’s AS? All I know about it is that it is a learning disorder similar to autism but that it has very wide range of severity. Does he have any compensation like a high memory retention?
Congrats on your new place. I’m really jealous now! I’m stuck in the city for six more years until I can retire. I hope there is something to retire from. I bet you are going to be way to busy to write much so I just hope you get a chance to read this long post from from a short guy.

happy moving
BF
Hi again bottom feeder. Sounds like you are already attuned to buying things like London Fog jackets for a pittance. Pity that most don’t see the advantage of our way of looking at spending money wisely. I can’t complain since their ignorance is our opportunity. There is a whole world of bargains out there due to the fact that most people pride themselves in only buying new items. An awful wasteful way to go through life, don’t you think ?

Sometimes I wonder if, in the future, people will look back and see the folly of their ways and how they could have controlled their spending and therefore not found themselves in a financially precarious position. It took many years of a grinding depression to dramatically alter the psyche of the public. My parents saved at every opportunity and invested in real estate. The book, “The Millionaire Next Door”, could have been their financial bible.

A few days ago I was talking with a 61 year old veteran of Viet Nam. He has a Purple Heart and saw a great deal of action on the front lines. What stuck out in my mind was that he said that our fathers who were in WWII came home and did everything in their power to make the world a better place. He said that this was on an unprecedented scale and we children have lived amidst great prosperity and opportunity as a result. I was somewhat surprised until I recalled how my mother and father had worked so hard to succeed through the years, sacrificing having luxuries now and instead saving and investing for the future. A feeling hard to describe came over me. It was a feeling of both gratefulness and a greater respect for my parents and their generation. Veteran’s Day, Independence Day and Labor Day will never be the same.

Off the soap box now, I return to the subject at hand. You wrote that you had never sold a car for more than you paid for it. However, from what I can tell, you got your value in buying a used car at a good price and driving it until it was shot to hell. This is also a wise method of keeping your expenditures down. I wholly respect this line of thinking.

When I talk about buying a car and selling it for more, I am referring to shorter term thinking. Also I am of the mindset of only buying a car that I can sell for more. This mindset rejects cars that cost me money and usually makes me a handsome profit. There are many types of cars that are screaming bargains out there. As I wrote before, I have three VW diesel Rabbits that I bought for a few hundred dollars each. They are an investment for the future. As I restore them, I will wait for the right time to sell them. High fuel prices are our future and a high MPG car will be in demand. I would think of the cutoff being no less than about 30 MPG.

Don’t be turned off by my being a mechanic and being able to rebuild the engine and transmission and anything else on a car. When my transmission business is slow, I will be keeping busy in fixing up these VW diesels. It is a diversification in my industry and many mechanics do this. You don’t have to be a mechanic to profit in buying and selling cars; it is an additional advantage for me in that I can buy cars that can be repaired and when sold I can reap the rewards of my labor invested.

A bargain is a bargain, whether it is a piece of furniture, a painting or a car. I have bought cars in the past and only cleaned them up and made a considerable profit. Anyone can do this. It is a good idea to specialize so that you know the strengths and weaknesses of a particular type. You may decide to think broadly and include all high MPG cars. If I were starting out, that is what I would do, for the future is in these cars. Notice all the gas hogs for sale lately ? With light sweet crude crowding $80 a barrel, drivers should be waking up to the necessity of high MPG cars as well as ride sharing if possible. It may take over $100 per barrel prices before the demand picks up noticeably. I have talked with several car buyers recently and they are already aware that MPG is a high priority. I have been continually looking for these diesel Volkswagens and it has become obvious that lately there are absolutely none being offered for sale. Nada. Zip. I can’t believe how fast this has happened. Where before there were several offered for sale at the same time, I haven’t seen any in the last couple of months. I think deep down, people know to hold on to these cars as a defense against rising fuel prices. Even if they are not running and sitting in the back yard, they just aren’t for sale.

Funny but now that I think about it, a high MPG car that needs repair may turn out to be a good investment if bought at the right time. One of my diesel VWs I bought for $200 would sell for $600 to $800 with fuel prices rising as they are. And that isn’t even with my doing any work on the car !

Not everyone has to have a high MPG car. Some don’t drive over a few thousand miles per year. Some are rich and don’t care; their luxury, safety and image are more important. It is the masses of commuters I am appealing to with 50-55 MPG cars. Hybrid cars are a waste of money to me. Why spend $30,000 to get 60 MPG when you could buy a used car that gets almost the same MPG for anywhere from $2,000 to $4,000 dollars ? My cars will sell for more with rebuilt engines and transmissions, maybe between $5,000 and $6,000. Still a fraction of a new hybrid. And these people are buying these hybrids on time; the interest and additional insurance must be burdensome.

My son’s Asperger’s syndrome isn’t a problem intellectually; it is more a matter of fine motor skills. It took him a long time to learn to tie his shoelaces. He took the GED test recently and on two of the tests was the top one of 100 who took the tests. From what I have experienced with my son, I find that he is the most gentle, considerate, loving person I could ask to know. If the world were made of these people, we wouldn’t have the problems we are facing. I’m a lucky, lucky man having him for my son.

As I keep saying, “the LOVE of money is the root of all evil”. Look at our leadership and think what their motivations must be to act and legislate in such a manner. No need to go further; this thread isn’t about this anyway but rather a defense against the ravages of inflation. Money must not only be used with respect and care but we also need to learn ways to create more income, especially to have enough to put away for a rainy day.

Money is freedom. Anyone with considerable debts is a slave to the system. Get out of debt as much and as fast as possible. I just spoke with my younger daughter (4:30 A.M. my time) and she is closing out her 401K and using that money to pay off her debts. Hopefully she will continue with this debt shedding process and sell her 2006 Volvo which has $600 per month payments. Yikes ! Holy shitloads, Batman ! I have been coaching her and she still rationalizes that she needs a reliable car. Somehow this translates in her mind that she has to have a punishing car payment in order to feel confident that her car will get her to work.

In my experience as a career auto mechanic, ladies don’t know enough about cars and car repair to defend themselves from dishonest salesmen and auto mechanics. I hope that they would confer with a knowledgeable male before spending money unnecessarily. This isn’t sexist but we men are almost all car nuts and can often help the ladies. I wish my daughter had conferred with me before buying this Volvo; she loves the car but hates the mothly (Freudian slip here, as in moth eaten) payments. And thanks to these mothly payments, she has holes in her financial situation. I wonder if she realizes that her $600 payments are actually costing her $900 in before tax dollars. Yikes and a half !

I know I’m bouncing around in this post but want to mention that the topic of owning a small business should be discussed in depth. After covering the care and feeding of cars I had planned to discuss housing but now feel that houses and their financial characteristics are already pretty well known. So even though houses are the greatest expense for many folks, I find that it is hardest for most to change their living accommodations. Although worthy of discussion because of high costs, I don’t know if I could be of any help in dealing with housing (or is that hosing ?).

I can especially appreciate the difficulty in moving since I and my sons are in the process of packing up all our possessions and moving to what we laughingly refer as “the ranch”. Ten acres (or is that achers ?) of fun filled dirt just waiting to be awakened to the possibilities our imaginations can conjure up. A huge garden here, an orchard there, a swimming hole in the woods; the possibilities are beckoning. American bald eagles soaring above completes the picture that I may have found a place that I can call home for the rest of my life. Hope springs eternal in the human breast.

And it this hope for a better future that we must maintain even through what may seem the darkest of times. I believe that we are facing these times and must preposition ourselves to be winners. A collapse of the dollar would be devastating to the general population. We who are reading here on the GIM website are all aware and searching for answers to how we may best defend ourselves from the insanity.

I remember years ago that many were writing that having a pile of precious metals would make them rich in the future. But now we have come to realize that the winners will be those who lost the least. We are not facing another 1979-80 precious metal parabolic but another situation, entirely different.

With the Bear Stearns collateralized debt obligations (CDO) debacle wherein the auction was halted because bidders were only willing to pay 30% of what was considered market price, the cat is out of the bag. I read in a British article that some were only bidding 15% ! Yikes is beginning to lose its impact. To have to mark to market these toxic mortgage loans was too shocking to the public in general. I’m surprised that an auction was even allowed to begin in the first place. Didn’t they know this would happen ? Are they too high in their ivory towers to see ? This auction failure being exposed to investors could be sufficient to topple the mortgage domino and take down the stock and bond house of cards. Mixing metaphors here. I never claimed I was an accomplished writer.

Bubbles don’t deflate; they suddenly pop, only leaving the memory of what was. Remember blowing soap bubbles and at first they were a kaleidoscope of colors capturing our fascination ? Next they turned dark and the color left them. That is just before they popped and disappeared.

Fiat currency isn’t even physical today with almost all of it not even printed to represent the trillions out there. It is mostly only blips on a computer system. If we will only realize this and act accordingly, we will be able to protect ourselves somewhat. I say somewhat because there is no way to avoid being affected in a chaotic reserve currency collapse. Look, I don’t like being the bearer of bad news but it should come as no surprise that we are rapidly coming to the end of life as we have known it. Nations are now refusing to deal in dollars since they have been so horribly devalued.

There are great changes coming. And all too soon, as is their nature. If we end up with a cashless world, we lose much if not all of our freedom. A cashless world puts all possessions in others’ control. I still find it interesting that in about 1981 I was playing around with finding the mark of the beast and came up with the word “computer”. It translates to 666 when giving letters numerical values. A=6, B=12, C=18 and so forth. And now with everything becoming computerized, it seems to be becoming fulfilled. I have written about this in the past but have never gotten any response. Maybe it doesn’t need a response. Just a spooky observation.

With problems, there are solutions. So what could be the answer to this seemingly insurmountable cashless world conundrum ? Well, one is to leave the system and live in the boonies with no connection to modern civilization. Pretty impractical if not impossible.

The best answer I can see is to be diversified in investments, skilled in things that will have a demand in the future, debt free and having a group of others you can depend on. Bartering and horse trading may even become a crime for a time as government tightens the noose in trying to control Joe public. Remember that in a depression, tax collections fall and with the millions at the government teat, someone will be squeezing us boobs all the harder.

I remember being a golf caddy back in the late 1960s. And not a very good one either; it just wasn’t my bag I guess. Anyway, I remember a black man who had 5 sons and they all arrived in this humongous Cadillac (caddy like, couldn‘t resist). They caddied all day and piled into dad’s car and went home. I imagine that they pooled their money and lived quite well. The point I am desperately trying to make is that cooperation may be a solution in the future. My father said that in Depression I, people pulled together and contributed whatever they could to the household. There was no me and mine but more of a us and ours mentality. There is safety in numbers and this may work for some of you. I am doing this with my sons and possibly with my nephew who may decide to live with us.

Although I may have seemed to have written much about negative events in this post, I want you all to realize that even the darkest times must be dealt with in the most positive attitude we can muster. We are the ones who know the score and therefore it is our duty to lead others to safety. A leader with a negative attitude will rub off on others. The overview is to be outward looking and reaching out to loved ones.

I don’t mean to sound preachy but I have found that even when I am having serious difficulties in my own life, I am lifted by helping others. This gets my mind off my own problems and when I return to solving them I feel refreshed. Responsibilities are a two edged sword; they are work but also give one a sense of value to others and therefore to oneself. I don’t know how else to explain it but the more I give, the more I get. I just wish my old body could keep up with me.

Best wishes and JMHO,

Agnut

P.S. bottom feeder, is there any way that you could find a place in the country ? Maybe someone you could stay with if things got tough ? As I wrote, moving is probably the hardest change to make.
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Old 07-20-2007
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Hello Agnut,
I have followed this thread since its start.
It is great and I have found that it has given me a "fresh" motivation
as far as being more aware, and open and active in my transactions everywhere.
Recently, I was talking on the telephone with a friend and they learned that I was planning on going to the Home Depot for a small window shaker air conditioner.
They stated that their parents ( in their 70's ) were moving and they had one for cheap as they did not want to move it with them.
I got directions and went there and sure enough, almost brand new, 18,000 BTU including heat , 600 bucks new....and it was mine for 50 bucks....incredible shape...I was really happy because I was going to spend three times that much on a much smaller unit...
But that is not all....
And this next part is what I am getting at....
We were talking....small stuff...they are downsizing....yadda yadda yadda...
I was getting ready to go...
And this older model ( 1980 ) sports car was sitting there in their garage,
and I blurted out...
" Hey, what are you guys gonna do with THAT ? "
In recent years I have become much more reserved and less outgoing in this nature so I even suprised myself....
They said " Well...this guy says he is gonna buy it...he hasn't called....we really do not wanna take it with us....our son ( my friend ) is scared of it / does not want it...and we only drove it once a month so it has less than 30 thousand miles on it etc etc etc....and then....why do you ask ....are you interested...??"
So...I am not the smartest tool in the box sometimes, and I have not kept up very well with recent pricing trends, but I have done some trading over the years ( having owned only about 20 or so autos ) and I have found that the ONLY way I ever lost was with NEW cars bought from a dealer...ALL of the good deals I have made were with older models and I have almost always sold them for more than I originally paid for them OR, as said in this thread....drove them into the ground...
So...I asked back " Well...I am not to awfully familiar with this model, but what are you asking ? "
Anyways, to not carry on to much,
the bottom line is that I gave them what they were asking,
so they were super happy, and I knew I would be happy ( baring a total engine failure ! )
and so I went the next week and picked up an item for cash that ( at first "gut feeling" and have now confirmed ) I can almost double my money on.

So I guess the lesson I have learned, is to speak up more, always listen to that gut feeling, or at least pay attention more often ( ! ),
and to always be aware..... because "opportunityisnowhere".
It just depends on how you see it...... and read it !!...

Gotta go,
Regards,
Haystackneedle
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Old 07-20-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Agnut, thanks again for another excellent article.

I couldn't agree more about the car thing, as you said, why pay $30k for 45mpg when you can pay $2-5k for 40mpg? And of course there's sales tax, insurance, yearly registration, yikes!

I too am cashing out my 401k, meager as it is, to pay off some of my student loans. I got suckered into those while I was in school... hey, at the time it seemed like free money. Now I am paying the price.

But it shouldn't take more than a year or two to obliterate them. I just hope I have time before the balloon of our economy goes up.
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Old 07-21-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

I agree that those of us who have grown up in the last 30 to 50 years have seen great prosperity as a result of our parents efforts. Those of us who are older than that remember our parents being very frugal and trying to impart that wisdom of frugality to us, their children with varying results.

I can only advise our younger members to become debt free and keep your home mortgage within reasonable bounds. If you only pay such a paltry amount as $50 a month extra on your mortgage you will have it paid off years earlier. And the interest that you save you have paid yourself. And tax free too! If you don’t believe me just work it out in an Excel spreadsheet. You can use Excel, right?

Whenever you go grocery shopping buy a few extra cans of chili, some canned soup, or a few cans of corn – put them up in your pantry. Those prices ain’t goin’ down anytime soon.

Like Agnut says; don’t live the wasteful life, there are saving opportunities at every turn – take them.


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Old 07-22-2007
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Quote:
Originally Posted by GSPP View Post
First off, thank you everybody (esp. agnut) for this incredible wealth of information and experience. Growing up I was lucky enough to absorb a lot of the qualities and attitudes required for holding on to wealth instead of pissing it away. My dad is an airline pilot who saw his job and a frightening amount of his wealth disappear when the big national carrier that employed him went under. This happened when I was only 6 or 7, and my parents tell me stories about how I used to tell them not to worry about giving me lunch money or Christmas presents, that I didn't need it. Obviously they didn't listen, and I still ate lunch. Looking back, it's hard to know whether to laugh or cry. Traumatic as that apparently was for me back then, looking around at my peers I'm glad I don't suffer from the same lack of understanding of the value of money as so many of them do. Understanding is one thing, but for the most part I lack real experience in bartering and deal making. Still, I suppose I'm a step ahead of most simply because I know what it is that I do not know.

I just graduated from college this spring, and I've only in the past 6 months really began to understand how big a whole we've dug for ourselves. The crash course in real world economics I've found online this past month has been infinitely more educational than half the junk that passes for college courses these days. It really is embarrassing to remember some of the things I got college credit for. I think another indicator of our economic mess, related to both the absurd cost of housing and the criminal rate of inflation, is the fact that I and many of my peers find ourselves simply unable to be financially independent after college. And I don't even have any debt. At first I was quite upset that I had to move back in with the parents, after all, I'd just spent the last four years pretty much on my own. But as I've spoken with more and more recent graduates, I'm no longer surprised to hear that they too have moved back home. For many people my age, there is no good financial alternative. I feel like we've been sold a brand new product whose "use by" date is sometime back in the late 90's.

But now to the real point of this post. The analogy of nobody wanting to yell "Fire" in the crowded theater has been brought up a few times in this thread and its linked articles. Can anybody make a guess as to the real consequences of yelling "Fire!" at this point in the game? Or maybe a better analogy would be the impact of pulling the fire alarm in the hopes that everyone files out of the theater in an orderly fashion. Would this be better than quietly walking out while knowing that everyone else is about to be burnt to a crisp? I bring this up because I am currently struggling with this issue. I am looking to start a career in public policy because I know that our current policies have failed dismally. And if we continue to leave the decision making up to the people who can't see that, well obviously we're just gonna get more of the same. Maybe it's too late, but I'm pretty passionate about this and want to work towards educating the sheeple and fixing the broken system. My dilemma is I'm beginning to think that train might have already left the station. I see the vital need for me to make whatever preparations I can to prevent myself being swept away by the coming crash, but I also feel a strong pull to work now to try and lessen the total damage. Set a firebreak, if you will. I am by no means a bleeding heart; I just don't want to stand aside and watch while my country glibly throws itself off a cliff. Of course, this means I'd be living and working in DC...probably not the safest of places these days nor the best to prepare for WTSHTF.

I'm pretty sure I know what the majority response will be (if any), but I figured why not go fishing and see what bites? So please, hit me with it. How can I ignore you're opinion if you don't share it with me?:D Reading back over all this, I realize a some of it may be a bit off topic for this thread. Not totally, I hope. If so, feel free to flame me mercilessly.

Oh and good luck with the move agnut. Now that I finally finished reading through this thread, I'm gonna miss regular updates.
Hi GSPP and welcome to the GIM website. I noticed that you are beginning to post on GIM and any help is appreciated. The more experiences we share, the more we can help others grow. I am learning too ! All the time. This old dog CAN learn new tricks.

It is obvious that your parents did all they could to care for you and protect you through tough family times. That is what all good parents are supposed to do. We could learn a lot by watching the animal world and how they care for their young. And we humans are supposed to be the most highly evolved life forms.

I attended college for four years but didn’t graduate. I went into the real world and began to learn things I could use. Theory in school is generally so distant from real life experiences that only in retrospect can we see what the theories were trying to teach us. That is why I couldn’t stand taking another class; terminal boredom.

Many young graduates are moving home with their parents. I have heard many stories of being unable to get a decent paying job after college. My sons and I have had many conversations about whether they should go to college or learn a trade. My older son wanted to learn mechanics so we have been building a transmission repair shop for the last year or so. The equipment, parts, core transmissions, and many connections have taken more time than most other types of businesses but the financial rewards and job security are there. China isn’t going to take away my trade; it would be suicidal to try. I like that.

After my older son has been trained and takes over the business, I will be able to focus on my younger son. He wants to learn about buying and selling; deal making. We have already started doing this as much as time permits.

My sons are welcome to live with me as long as they want. As I wrote in my last post, there is strength in numbers. Besides, I love having them around.

As an example, imagine if I had six sons and they all grew up and moved out on their own. That would create six rental payment bills, plus my own. Six rental bills costing thousands of dollars per month. Then there is electric, heating, phone, insurance, cable and a bunch of other incidentals that eat away at a paycheck like hungry termites.

What is at the core of this living together and pooling resources ? Cooperation, patience and consideration. Not exactly the American way now. However, long ago when we had an agrarian society, children stayed at home and helped work the farm until they saved and then married. The nuclear family was closer then, largely by necessity. Very survival was at stake.

I don’t know, maybe children growing up and moving out has been a luxury that we may not be able to afford in the future. Family groups that live and work together would be more financially fit and therefore less stressed than if the members tried to live separately.

I may seem a bit off topic here but if you will consider what we may be facing in the future, I thought this should be mentioned as another means of saving scarce resources. Lower total costs as well as greater ability to defend what we do have. I know that Ponce already has people he can trust who are positioned to move in with him when things fall apart. I have also already done this with my family. Anyway, something to think about.

“ In extremis“, where have we heard that before ?

"In extremis fiat money is accepted by nobody and gold is always accepted and is the ultimate means of payment…" - Alan Greenspan, Testimony before the U.S House Banking Committee, May 20, 1999

One of Webster’s definitions is “An extreme state or condition, hence, danger, distress, etc.”.

A collapse of fiat currency is most definitely an extreme situation. We here at GIM have focused on precious metals and there is no denying that it is vitally important. But knowing what to do with those precious metals in the future is equally as important. Becoming a sharp barterer and horse trader will become essential in extracting the most value from our wealth.

Although there are over 11,000 visits so far on this thread, I believe that there are only 50 or so following it now. It has become so long that it could be made into a book. And we aren’t even near finished with all the possibilities to be discussed. I didn’t know that this thread would go on so long. But when I think about it, we are discussing a whole way of life and dealing with it through a different set of values and understanding. It is an all encompassing subject; our life and how to make it work for us.

It has been said that if you don’t know where you are going, you will get there eventually.

You can yell FIRE all you want and most people will just think you are crazy or paranoid. I have spoken with several people and only a few really listened. Denial is very powerful. Some were already aware and only too happy to discuss the possibilities and how to prepare. They acted relieved that they were not so alone in their suspicions that we are headed over the cliff.

GSPP, you wrote of getting involved and helping straighten out the system. This is a noble cause but my personal opinion is that it has gone too far and has too much momentum and power behind it to reverse course. It is pretty obvious that TPTB have an agenda; the mess we are in and will be facing in the near future didn’t happen by accident.

In my opinion, we are heading for a train wreck of unprecedented proportions; Depression I was small in comparison to the mess we are in now. The few, maybe one in a thousand, who have prepared will have the opportunity to get through the coming times with their lives intact.

As I write this on Sunday morning I think what could happen Sunday night when the world stock markets open in Asia. And then what could happen as the U.S. markets open Monday morning. Probably nothing but only probably, not surely. It is this possibility we must protect ourselves from. Remember that the nature of a crisis is that it catches most everyone unawares. And unprepared.

You must determine for your own self the percentage of possibility that there will be a crash in the near future. I can’t do that for you. You will have to make up your own mind and ACT accordingly. But if there is only a 5% chance of a collapse of life as we know it, shouldn’t we at least allocate some of our resources in defense ? And much of that reallocation is actually a wise idea since it makes a profit. With this knowledge, it is foolish to NOT ACT !

We have but to imagine a market crash and the following consequences to realize that no matter what, we are not fully prepared. I’m not, you’re not. As Ponce says, “To be ready is not”. But what we have done in preparation in the past will determine how well we fare in such a calamitous world.

What do I think the odds of a crash are ? Let me just say that I don’t see how we can avoid a crash.

How much money do you have in the bank ? How much money do you have in stocks and bonds ? Is it significant enough that you would miss it if it were to vaporize ? What percentage of your wealth is in physical precious metals ? How much food do you have set aside ? Are you living in a large city because your job is there and you don’t know what you would do without this familiar security ? And on and on…

Since Y2K I have been moving more toward more safe and unpopulated properties. It has taken several years to reach where I am today. Some has been through the help of my wonderful family. Much has been through my conscious necessity to have a “bug out” place where I and some family members could make a stand. It looks like it will happen now as we are in the process of moving our possessions to this 10 acre property. I am still cautiously skeptical and will not be at peace until we have fully moved; in about 10 days.

Folks like Tn…Andy, Ponce and others are already in their rural positions and credit must be given for their long hard work to follow their beliefs. Maybe it would be a good idea to buy some bare rural land with water and have a motor home to move there when the need arises. In any case this is a huge undertaking and I fully understand why so few have done this.

Gotta go; still packing.

Best wishes and as usual, JMHO,

Agnut

P.S. Ponce has a deal going with the local gas station owner. He is trading his silver at spot price plus $0.60 for gas at the going rate. Note that he is getting the same silver price as if he were a dealer. Not too shabby. He calculates that he is getting a gallon of gas for $1.21 when balanced against what he paid for the silver some years ago. And his price is getting better as silver price outpaces gas prices.

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. ... This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
Alan Greenspan
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  #239  
Old 07-23-2007
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Default Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

Great articles, Agnut, agree 110% on the kid issue and learning a trade that can't be outsourced. My one son listened, he's doing the mechanic thing, my other son, semi-listened, he's attending school for heavy equipment operations (which will dry up when the storm hits but at least he can run 'em).

I too wanted them all to stay home and contribute to making the entire family a stronger unit for when TSHTF, but the oldest and his gal just moved to Oregon, and spent ALL their cash on junk, new cars, new furniture...however, they are debt free, but I was sick that they spent her entire fortune, minus what she has invested (untouchable) for retirement (trust terms); well guess what, that'll go bye bye too when the market tanks.

And they moved to a city. They could have bought land out here, mobile home, paid for in cash, and started their own businesses. Heavy equipment operators make good money out here, but they love Oregon. I suspect when TSHTF they'll be back.

At least your daughter is getting out of debt. It took me years too just to get my son to go along with the no debt program, so at least he's listened (and his gal too) to me on that front, but man oh man am I ever heartbroke for them that they blew all that money on cars and furniture and could have had paid-off small home or land w/mobile home out here for the same amount.

Young adults...arrrgggghhhh. I talked to them until I was blue in the face on putting a mobile home up on this property next to our house to SAVE money, and starting their own little businesses, nope, not good enough, gal gets inheritance doesn't have to live in no ratty mobile home...let's just pay the LANDLORD and buy NEW depreciating vehicles. I've tallied the numbers, they've blown approx. $70k, cash. Gone. Nothing to show for it but CARS and furniture. I could pull my hair out, but I did keep positive about their move and wished them luck, all I could do.
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  #240  
Old 07-28-2007
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Cool Re: Bartering and Horse Trading

I won't be able to write for a few days until I can get my computer service provider sorted out. My sons and I are moving to a 10 acre parcel. So far, all I can find is dial up where I am moving. Ugh.



Best wishes,

agnut
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